Thursday, 5 February 2015

A second bite of the cherry?

Seriously, I think not.  Probably me scratching myself.

I wouldn’t go up against the inevitable dominance of the house edge if it wasn’t in the service of my team.  I never win anything big, neither do Southampton, can we both lose?  Having won 35.75 with the 13.50 free money Betfred gave me I considered cashing out but figured there isn’t really much I want to buy for 35 quid, I’d rather add a fiver and re-invest.  The idea is to bet on teams that damage Southampton’s prospects; the greater the threat the more money.  I put 17.75 on Arsenal to win 39.05 (inc. stake) at 6/5.  Tottenham sit lower down the table and therefore a win from them is less harmful, so I put a smaller stake on them, 5 at 12/5 to win 17.00.  Ideally, I want both teams to draw and only pick up a point each and so I haven’t bet on this outcome.  I want Man U to lose so I’ve bet 8 on them to win 16 odds on.  A Man U draw or a loss would be considered a good result from Southampton’s perspective.  I want Southampton to win outright against QPR, a draw is not very useful, so I’ve bet 5 on a draw at 13/5 to win 18.00 and 5 on QPR at 7/2 to win 22.50.  From a financial point of view my worst case scenario is an Arsenal/Tottenham draw, a Man U draw or loss and a Southampton win.  By no means unfeasible.  But that would put Southampton back in third above Man U, a fantastic result and worth the outlay- a mere 5.00 of my actual money, depending on how you look at it.  (Forget Man City.  They have broken away and any slip would be a blip.  What’s more, the 2/11 odds are poor value IMHO).  The worst result for Southampton would be a loss for them and a win for Man U and Arsenal.  Even then, their position in the table would be quite good and financially I’d be looking at 77.55 in the bank to help me drown my sorrows.  If results go with the favourites then you would expect a Man U win, an Arsenal win and a Southampton win.  55,05 in the bank.  Can you believe it, I’d actually be in profit with a Southampton victory?  Of course, there are 3 possible results in a football match and though EVS on Man U looks to me to be a very sweet deal (say you bet 100, you get your stake plus 100 back) the number crunchers must know the odds of a draw or West Ham win are in fact higher.  So the two unlikely outcomes combined are greater than the one likely one.  A mediocre result would be Southampton draw, Man U draw, Spurs/Arsenal draw.  I’d lose almost half my total outlay with no progress at all for Southampton.
The way I’m talking, you’d think I was A, good at maths, B a seasoned gambler.  I’m neither.  I’m a wildcard and  I’ll be chucked back into oblivion very soon.  Another thing, if I were a professional I would have cashed out and scoured the internet looking for the bookies offering the best odds on the particular teams I wanted to bet on.  One bookie might give you better odds on Arsenal, another Man U.  No supermarket has all the best deals on all products, one stop shop betting is also a folly, I would think.

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